atto-cosmology: NOAA terrestrian warming goes non-linear?
boud w astro.uni.torun.pl
Wto, 30 Mar 2004, 15:10:49 CEST
atto-cosmology (see http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SI_prefix for "atto")
NOAA (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, USA):
> Global warming spirals upwards
> By Geoffrey Lean, Environment Editor
> 28 March 2004
> Levels of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere have jumped abruptly,
> raising fears that global warming may be accelerating out of control.
> Measurements by US government scientists show that concentrations of
> the gas, the main cause of the climate exchange, rose by a record
> amount over the past 12 months. It is the third successive year in
> which they have increased sharply, marking an unprecedented triennial
> Scientists are at a loss to explain why the rapid rise has taken
> place, but fear that it could show the first signs that global warming
> is feeding on itself, with rising temperatures causing increases in
> carbon dioxide, which then go on to drive the thermometer even
> higher. That would be a deeply alarming development, suggesting that
> this self-reinforcing heating could spiral upwards beyond the reach of
> any attempts to combat it.
In other words, we may have reached d(\Delta T)/dt \propto (\Delta T)
in which case \Delta T \propto \exp(t) . Of course, negative feedbacks
will have to happen sooner or later, but the stable point in N-parameter
space could be quite different from the stable point where we have
been during the previous 2000 years...
> The carbon dioxide measurements have been taken from the 11,400ft
> summit of Hawaii's Mauna Loa, whose enormous dome makes it the most
> substantial mountain on earth, by scientists working for the US
> government's National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.
> The latest measurements, taken a week ago, showed that carbon dioxide
> had reached about 379 parts per million (ppm), up from about 376ppm
> the year before, from 373ppm in 2002 and about 371ppm in 2001. These
> represent three of the four biggest increases on record (the other was
> in 1998), creating an unprecedented sequence. They add up to a 64 per
> cent rise over the average rate of growth over the past decade, of
> 1.8ppm a year.
> The US scientists have yet to analyse the figures and stress that they
> could be just a remarkable blip. Professor Ralph Keeling - whose
> father Charles Keeling first set up the measurements from Mauna Loa -
> said:"We are moving into a warmer world".
i highly recommend the wikipedia article:
For people sceptical about the sources of the data (as we all should be),
at the bottom of the page there are external web links classified by
the biases of the different organisations:
"Scientific" (NASA + NOAA)
"Independent (or receives too little support to constitute "sponsorship")"
Environmental scientists don't seem to publish on http://arxiv.org or
the equivalent, unfortunately.
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